Tally Up the Score

One of the things that has always bugged me about those prediction columns that you always see at the beginning of the year is that no one ever writes one at the end of the 365 calendar days to tell you how accurate they were. Any industry analyst can do that. If people are going to have trust in your visions of the future, shouldn’t they know what you got right—and wrong. Kind of like your personal prognostication batting average. So, in the interest of full disclosure, here are my January predictions and a summary of what actually happened in 2016.

  • One or more of the following: Google, Apple, Facebook or Microsoft will build a data center roughly the size of a small planet.

Okay, I didn’t exactly hit this one on the head. While Facebook’s Ft. Worth behemoth is in under construction, by build I meant a completed facility. Also, Microsoft and Google both announced major expansions in Des Moines and Maynes County, Oklahoma. I’m going to grade this one on a curve and say I was half right.

Score: 0.5

  • One or more enterprises will announce a five-year data center strategy that will include the building of 1-3MW in Tier 2 and 3 markets to specifically serve as edge facilities.

Big swing and a miss on this one. Thought I nailed it when EdgeConnex and Microsoft announced their deal, but then EdgeConnex said they were going to start going after Tier 1 markets with large facilities. Dang it. 0 points.

Score: 0

  • Kubernetes will reign as the year’s most talked about technology that no one understands.

Can you explain it? I thought so. 1 point.

Score: 1

  • The combination of IoT and large content delivery applications will result in everyone seeing a lot more presentations at trade shows on bandwidth and latency.

I usually fall asleep during these things so I can’t speak for anyone else, but since I did one at 7×24, I think that counts. 1 point

Score: 1

  • More announcements will be made regarding data centers powered by anything other than fossil fuels. Greenpeace will be ecstatic. Birds, large swathes of forests and nuclear power advocate not so much.

I think the correct question is, “who didn’t”. Google just announced today that they’ll be powering their facilities with 100% wind and solar energy in 2017. 300,000 birds were unavailable for comment. In related news, the price for oil and gas stocks is up 22% YTD. 1 point

Score: 1

  • Northern Virginia will secede from the rest of the state and rename itself “Data Center Land”.

In the aftermath of this year’s presidential election a lot of places are talking about seccession. Unfortunately for me, these guys aren’t one of them. 0 points

Score: 0

  • Someone, somewhere will procure a DCIM solution and actually figure out how to use it.

Show of hands. All right then. 1 point

Score: 1

  • The government will continue to discover previously unknown data centers. The administration will blame the Republicans.

This initiative worked so well the guys in Washington just gave up and said no government entity can build a new data center without a permission slip. For those of you interested in keeping score, it’s estimated that the consolidation project savings over a six-year period totaled up to $2B. The feds spend $80B a year on IT. I’ll let you do the math. The administration found bigger things to blame the Republicans for. 1 point

Score: 1 point

  • The cost of water will be a larger factor in data center decisions resulting in airside solutions becoming the preferred mode of cooling in data centers below 5MW.

Sure sounded good when I said it, but I haven’t seen any empirical data on this one. Since I know I got the next one right I won’t be greedy. 0 points

Score: 0 points

  • The privacy of personal information, and the government’s access to it, will be a large issue in the 2016 presidential campaign and people will flock to their social media accounts to tell everyone what they think about it, where they thought about it, how many times they thought about it and who they thought about it with.

What can I say? When I’m right, I’m right. John Podesta, Wikileaks, the Democratic National Committee and who knows, maybe even the Russians, are all nodding in agreement. The fact that one of the candidates to be the leader of the free world proved my point about the whole social media thing is, well, YUUGE. 1 point

Score: 1

My Total Score: 6.5 (65%)

Score Rubric:

0-25%-           Wouldn’t even let you carry the crystal ball

26-50%-        Political Pollster

51-75%-        Clairvoyantß Me

75-100%-      Omniscient


Note: All predictions were made without the aid of leaked information, the Russians or Donna Brazile.